Case Study: From Static Plans to Living Models — Endicott College’s Financial Planning Evolution With Synario

Key Takeaways

• Evaluated $100M in Capital Initiatives with Confidence: Scenario modeling enabled Endicott to assess five major projects and identify a financially sustainable path forward.
• Enabled Real-Time, In-Meeting Decision-Making: Live, interactive modeling gave board and finance leaders immediate visibility into the impact of key decisions.
• Adapted Quickly Through Disruption: When COVID-19 emerged, Endicott leveraged its existing model to respond in real time without rebuilding from scratch.
• Expanded Impact Across Institutional Planning: Synario evolved from a capital planning tool into a platform supporting enrollment strategy, compensation, financial aid, and multi-year budgeting while helping leadership communicate clear, data-driven financial narratives.

The Challenges: Capital Project Prioritization and Sustaining Growth

Phase 1: Competing Capital Priorities and a $100M Decision

In 2019, Endicott College’s former president, Dr. Steven DiSalvo, and his board set out to address mounting infrastructure pressures.

A decade of steady enrollment growth had pushed the college’s residential and parking capacities to their limits. At the same time, growing student revenues had exposed significant gaps in the institution’s aging administrative systems. These gaps needed to be closed if Endicott was going to sustain its upward trajectory.

President DiSalvo and his executive committee brought the challenge to Anthony Ferullo, charging him with determining the best path forward. Ferullo quickly identified five capital initiatives under consideration, totaling approximately $100 million:

• Dorm Remodel: Renovations to an existing residence hall to support additional students and alleviate overcrowding.
• Townhome Development: Contemporary on-campus living arrangements to replace aging temporary modular housing.
• Parking Deck: A new structure to resolve longstanding parking limitations across campus.
• New Residence Hall: The largest project on the list, this full-service hall would include dormitories and food service, and was projected to generate additional room and board revenue.
• ERP Implementation: A required multi-year initiative to modernize administrative operations and support future growth.

Each project carried significant financial implications on its own. Evaluated together, they created a prioritization challenge that was too complex to work through with static planning tools.

Ferullo needed to understand not only whether each project was individually feasible, but also how different combinations, funded in different ways, would affect the college’s overall financial health over a ten-year horizon.

Compounding the complexity was the question of funding. U.S. bond market yields were near all-time lows, presenting a potential opportunity to issue debt at favorable rates. But capitalizing on that opportunity required a clear picture of how much debt Endicott could responsibly take on while maintaining its required minimum debt service coverage ratio and minimum liquidity ratio, covenants that could not be violated.

The finance team needed a way to model extreme cases, blended scenarios, and project-by-project tradeoffs all in a format they could present clearly to institutional leadership.

 

Phase 2: Sustaining Growth While Staying True to the Mission

As enrollment continued to grow in the years following the initial capital planning work, Endicott faced a new and equally important challenge: how to sustain that growth while preserving the intimate, student-centered experience that defines the institution.

Expanding facilities and programs is straightforward in concept. Doing so in a financially disciplined way, while tracking enrollment fluctuations, financial aid discount rates, compensation decisions, and a range of other operational variables, is considerably harder.

The college needed ongoing visibility into how operational and strategic decisions would ripple across its financial statements, not just for a single capital project, but year after year.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which interrupted Endicott’s capital project plans entirely, made this need even more urgent. Campus closures, auxiliary revenue losses, the shift to online instruction, and the closure of the campus hotel and conference center created a rapidly evolving financial picture. Leadership needed to understand the implications quickly and act decisively.

 

The Solution: Modeling $100M of Decisions, One Scenario at a Time

Building the Financial Model

Ferullo began by loading Endicott’s most current financial data into Synario and establishing an accurate baseline projection. This baseline served as a critical reference point, showing what the college’s financial future would look like if no capital projects were pursued at all and allowing the team to isolate the incremental impact of each initiative as it was added to or removed from the model.

With the baseline in place, Ferullo systematically modeled a range of funding scenarios, beginning with two extremes designed to bracket the solution space.

Extreme Scenario #1 – Fully Financed by Endicott

In this scenario, all five projects were funded entirely from institutional reserves with no debt issued.

While Endicott had the reserves to technically support this approach, the model revealed serious risks. Operating margin remained stable, but the liquidity ratio and debt service coverage ratio declined sharply. Within the three- to five-year window, the college’s margin of error became dangerously thin. Any unforeseen expense during that period could have serious financial consequences.

Given the broader economic environment and declining enrollment trends across the higher education sector, Ferullo determined this approach carried too much risk and did not position Endicott for long-term financial health.

Institutionally financing every project prevents Endicott College from maintaining an acceptable debt service coverage level, even though the Synario outputs indicate the college can uphold an acceptable operating margin and minimum liquidity ratio.

Note: The values presented here and below are for explanatory purposes only and do not reflect Endicott College’s actual financial standing.

 

Extreme Scenario #2 – Fully Debt Funded

The opposite scenario, funding all projects through debt issuance, preserved liquidity but created different, equally significant problems.

Operating margin declined, and the debt service coverage ratio fell well below acceptable thresholds. A compromised debt service ratio has compounding consequences. It signals reduced capacity to meet existing obligations and damages the institution’s credit rating, limiting future borrowing options.

This approach was also ruled out. But modeling both extremes served a critical purpose: it gave President DiSalvo and his board a clear, evidence-based understanding of why neither direction was viable on its own and built the foundation for a more nuanced conversation about what a sustainable middle ground might look like.

Institutionally financing all projects would prevent Endicott College from maintaining an acceptable debt service coverage level, despite the Synario results showing the college could still meet its acceptable operating margin and minimum liquidity ratio.

 

Scenario #3 – Mixed Debt and Cash

Working with PFM Financial Advisors, Ferullo determined that Endicott could reasonably take on approximately 40% of the total project costs as debt, with the remaining 60% covered from institutional funds. He modeled this blended approach in Synario and found that even this more balanced strategy was not sufficient to support all five projects simultaneously.

Liquidity and operating margin held up reasonably well, but the debt service coverage ratio remained below the required threshold. The model made clear that the issue was not simply about how the projects were funded. It was about the scale of the capital plan itself.

Endicott could not afford to pursue every initiative at once without putting its long-term financial stability at risk.

Despite utilizing both cash and debt funding, Endicott College found it unsustainable to finance the full scope of its initially projected capital projects and initiatives.

 

Project Prioritization Through Financial Modeling

With three funding scenarios exhausted, Ferullo turned Synario’s modeling capabilities toward a new question: which projects should Endicott actually pursue?

By toggling individual projects on and off within the model, the team was able to evaluate different combinations and identify the configuration that kept all key financial ratios within acceptable ranges. The analysis pointed to a clear conclusion: the dorm remodel and townhome development needed to be removed from the plan.

Removing those two housing initiatives, while funding the remaining three projects with a mix of debt and institutional reserves, allowed Endicott to maintain healthy operating margins, liquidity, and debt service coverage ratios. The college’s strategic vision remained achievable; it simply required a more disciplined sequencing.

The immediate consequence, however, was a near-term strain on student housing. To resolve this without taking on additional capital commitments, leadership identified a creative alternative: leasing and renovating a nearby apartment building to house students. This off-balance-sheet approach relieved the housing pressure while preserving the college’s financial flexibility.

Updated Scenario #3 – Final Analysis

With the leased apartment solution incorporated and the two housing projects removed, the revised model showed that Endicott could meet both its required debt service coverage ratio and liquidity ratio while maintaining a stable operating margin.

The college had a viable, financially sustainable path forward, one it could defend to its president, finance committee, and board.

By utilizing a leased apartment complex for the housing project, Endicott College successfully preserved a stable operating margin while satisfying both its mandated debt service coverage and liquidity ratio.

 

Stress Testing and Board Engagement

When Ferullo presented the findings to President DiSalvo and his leadership team, the meeting quickly became an interactive working session.

DiSalvo and his colleagues began asking what-if questions on the spot about enrollment fluctuations, headcount changes, faculty costs, and other uncertain variables. The president specifically asked Ferullo to model enrollment decline scenarios, wanting to understand the risks the college would face if growth reversed.

Ferullo adapted the model in real time. He layered in expense reduction assumptions alongside an enrollment decline scenario he had already built, and the team was able to see precisely where the pressure points were.

The analysis showed that Endicott would need to identify new revenue sources or cut costs if enrollment dropped by 10% or more, but also that leadership would have approximately four years to respond before the situation became critical. That window gave the team confidence that even a worst-case scenario was navigable.

The Finance Committee approved the plan. The Board of Directors followed. Synario not only provided a financial answer, but it also gave leadership the confidence and clarity to move forward.

 

Adapting to COVID-19

As Endicott began executing its approved capital plan, COVID-19 struck. Campus closures, dramatic revenue shifts, and deep operational uncertainty forced the college to pause all spending and reassess its financial outlook from the ground up.

Rather than rebuilding its financial model from scratch, Ferullo simply turned off the capital project scenarios in Synario and layered in a new set of assumptions to reflect the pandemic’s impact: campus closures, auxiliary revenue reductions, the transition to online learning, and the closure of the campus hotel and conference center.

The same underlying model was adapted to a completely different reality in a fraction of the time it would have taken with a conventional approach.

Ferullo presented the updated model to Endicott’s leadership team and other institutional stakeholders, using it to build shared awareness of the college’s new financial environment and to evaluate the options available. Synario continued to serve as the central platform for navigating uncertainty, not despite the disruption, but because of it.

 

Phase 2: Operational and Strategic Planning for Sustainable Growth

As the pandemic subsided and Endicott looked toward the future, the role of Synario within the institution evolved significantly. What had begun as a capital planning tool became the foundation for the college’s entire financial planning operation.

The finance team began using Synario to model enrollment in best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios, an approach born of necessity during COVID-19 that became standard practice. Over time, this expanded to encompass financial aid discount rates, compensation planning, new hire decisions, student retention initiatives, and multi-year operating budgets.

Ferullo and his team could now see, in a single integrated model, how any operational decision would affect both the profit and loss (P&L) statement and the balance sheet.

“[Synario has] the benefit of being able to go through all of the important levers that are important to us. So, you set your enrollment, you set assumptions, you get to see how it impacts operations. You build projects, turn them on and off. And the fact that you can see not only how it impacts your P&L […] but we can see a balance sheet and what it does to various asset balances and cash balances.” – Anthony Ferullo, VP of Finance & COO, Endicott College

Synario’s live scenario modeling capabilities also proved invaluable during board and finance committee meetings. Rather than presenting static slides, Ferullo could adjust financial levers in real time, including enrollment assumptions, inflation rates, and project timelines, and let board members see the immediate implications of different choices.

This interactive approach drove greater engagement and buy-in from decision-makers, who were no longer passive recipients of financial reports but active participants in the planning process.

The platform also helped Endicott establish and enforce financial guardrails: debt covenant thresholds, margin targets, and other critical ratios that kept the institution financially disciplined even as it pursued ambitious growth. These guardrails gave leadership a consistent framework for evaluating new opportunities against a standard of long-term sustainability.

Synario’s consulting team played an important supporting role throughout. Beyond helping build and refine the models, the Synario team advised Ferullo and his colleagues on how to structure financial narratives for the board, translating complex modeling outputs into clear, persuasive presentations that drove confident decision-making.

“Not only is the tool powerful and allows me to make some, and our team to make some, good data-driven decisions, but we’re also working with consultants that are always there to help and not just help, but they’ve been great at advising as well.” – Anthony Ferullo, VP of Finance & COO, Endicott College

 

The Results: A Sustainable Path Forward, Validated by Data

 

A Financially Sustainable Capital Plan

Through disciplined scenario modeling, Endicott identified a capital investment strategy that maintained healthy operating margins, liquidity ratios, and debt service coverage ratios.

By removing two housing projects from its original plan and funding the remaining three initiatives with a blended mix of debt and institutional reserves, the college preserved its long-term financial stability without sacrificing its core growth objectives.

A direct product of the scenario modeling process, the decision to lease a nearby apartment building as a short-term housing solution was a creative, financially sound alternative that would not have surfaced through conventional planning methods.

 

Successful Capital Project Execution

The capital planning work ultimately translated into real results on the ground. Endicott successfully opened a new residence hall and a state-of-the-art school of nursing and health sciences, both of which required careful financial analysis to sequence and fund appropriately.

These projects reflect the college’s commitment to student outcomes and its confidence in its long-term financial trajectory.

 

Rapid COVID-19 Response

When the pandemic disrupted higher education operations, Endicott was able to pivot its financial model quickly and with minimal disruption.

Rather than losing weeks rebuilding models, Ferullo adapted the existing Synario model to reflect the college’s new reality in a matter of days. The resulting analysis gave leadership a clear view of the financial implications of the crisis and the options available to navigate it, allowing Endicott to act decisively at a moment when many institutions were paralyzed by uncertainty.

 

Enhanced Board and Stakeholder Confidence

Synario’s interactive, real-time modeling capabilities transformed how Endicott’s finance team engaged with its board and senior leadership.

By enabling what-if questions to be answered on the spot — during presentations, not after them — the platform gave decision-makers immediate, tangible insight into the consequences of their choices. This transparency built trust in the planning process and accelerated consensus around strategic decisions.

 

Expanded Operational Visibility

What began as a capital planning tool became the backbone of Endicott’s entire financial planning operation.

The finance team now uses Synario to model enrollment scenarios, financial aid strategies, compensation decisions, and multi-year operating budgets, giving the college a comprehensive, integrated view of its financial health at any given moment.

The ability to see how individual decisions ripple across the P&L and the balance sheet simultaneously has fundamentally changed how Endicott plans and operates.

 

A Platform for Future Growth

Looking ahead, Endicott is using Synario to evaluate its next wave of initiatives, assessing the ROI of adding new academic majors, expanding student services, and growing graduate programs.

Departmental stakeholders across the college are increasingly involved in the planning process, using Synario’s on/off project modeling to evaluate what each initiative means for the institution’s financial future.

For Endicott, Synario is no longer simply a modeling platform but the operating system for strategic financial decision-making. It has helped the college sustain enrollment growth, navigate crisis, and remain committed to the personalized student experience that defines it.

 

Supporting Smarter Decisions at Every Stage

Endicott College’s experience with Synario illustrates what becomes possible when higher education financial planning moves from static documents to dynamic, integrated models.

From evaluating a $100 million capital plan under bond market conditions that demanded precision, to navigating a global pandemic with the same underlying model, to now shaping the college’s operational and strategic future, Synario has been a constant through each stage of Endicott’s growth.

At the center of that journey is Anthony Ferullo, a finance leader who understood early that the right tool, paired with the right support, could transform how an institution sees its future. For Endicott, that future looks clearer, more confident, and more sustainable than ever.

Is your institution making its most important financial decisions without complete visibility? Synario empowers higher ed finance leaders with dynamic scenario modeling, real-time what-if analysis, and integrated financial statements that connect capital and operational planning in one platform.

See how Synario can work for your institution. Request a demo.