Case Study: How Synario Modernized Long-Term Transit Forecasting for the City of Phoenix

The City of Phoenix Public Transit Department manages one of the largest and fastest-growing transit systems in the Southwest United States. Its network serves a growing population across an expanding geographic area, including light rail, fixed-route buses, paratransit, and emerging mobility programs like microtransit and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT).

The department is led by Assistant Public Transit Director Juanita Carver, who brings over 20 years of municipal budgeting and capital planning experience, and Fiscal Consultant William (Bill) Maynard, who contributes more than 40 years of government finance and leadership experience, including a distinguished U.S. Air Force career. Together, they guide the department’s mission to deliver safe, equitable, and sustainable mobility.

Managing billions in funding from federal grants, local taxes, and regional partnerships, the department must balance short-term operational needs with long-term capital investment strategies that support system expansion, service reliability, and technology upgrades.

With major initiatives underway, including new light-rail extensions, BRT corridor development, and a long-term transition to a zero-emission fleet, the department required a financial planning solution capable of integrating capital, operational, and funding data into a single, agile modeling environment.

Inflation, rising labor costs, shifting ridership trends, and evolving regulatory demands further complicated efforts to maintain financial sustainability. Recognizing the limitations of spreadsheet-based planning, the department sought a platform that could improve forecasting accuracy, streamline collaboration, and increase transparency for leadership and stakeholders.

Enter Synario’s dynamic, cloud-based planning platform. We recently spoke with Juanita and Bill during our 2025 Virtual Solutions Summit to learn how Synario helps the City of Phoenix Public Transit Department navigate a rapidly changing transit ecosystem.

The Challenge: Managing Financial Complexity Amid Growth & Change

Phoenix relies on multiple major revenue sources, including T2050 local transit tax revenues, county excise taxes, federal grants, and fare revenue, each with its own eligibility rules and reporting requirements.

Before Synario, tracking compliance across these programs was manual and fragmented, increasing audit risk and limiting financial visibility. Aligning funding commitments with voter-approved plans added yet another layer of complexity.

Additionally, the city’s legacy spreadsheet-based model made future planning cumbersome. Frequent manual updates were required to reflect changing needs, increasing the potential for errors and oversights.

“[Our spreadsheet model] has been super useful, but it does allow for a lot more human error when you have people going in and updating and entering data.” – Juanita Carver, Deputy IT Director at the City of Phoenix Public Transit Department

Running alternative scenarios was time-consuming, version control was challenging, and leadership had limited visibility into financial outcomes. The result: bottlenecks and delayed decision-making.

Long-term planning was further complicated by uncertainty. Inflation, fluctuating ridership, and rising labor costs made maintaining accurate project budgets difficult, while variability in federal grants and evolving regulatory requirements, such as mandates for zero-emission vehicle adoption, introduced additional ambiguity.

Finally, siloed financial and operational data across departments and partner agencies made it difficult for leadership, boards, and policymakers to see the full picture of long-term needs and constraints. Without centralized insights, teams spent excessive time translating data into digestible formats, diverting energy from strategic decision-making.

These issues highlighted the need for rigorous, scenario-based financial analysis to ensure operational resilience and sustainability.

 

The Solution: Deploying Synario for Integrated Capital & Operational Insight

Adoption of Synario’s Financial Modeling Platform

Phoenix transitioned away from static spreadsheets with the implementation of Synario’s cloud-based financial modeling platform.

Built for complex, multi-fund transit agency planning, Synario integrates data in one environment. This ensures that all stakeholders work from a single source of truth, while built-in modeling controls support long-term accuracy and audit readiness.

With Synario, updates and version adjustments no longer require rebuilding complex spreadsheets, and every assumption is documented clearly.

 

Scenario-Based Forecasting & “What-If” Modeling

Synario’s ability to simultaneously project multiple budget and funding scenarios empowers leaders to evaluate alternatives and understand the impacts of different assumptions in real time.

Changes to project timing, inflation expectations, or revenue forecasts are instantly viewable, giving decision-makers the context they need to effectively prioritize and avoid unpleasant surprises.

 

Compliance & Constraint Management

Synario supports Phoenix’s compliance responsibilities by embedding funding restrictions directly into the model, such as the rule that county excise tax funds cannot exceed 35.5% of operations and maintenance spending.

With automated controls and alerts guiding allocations and preventing over-commitment, Phoenix mitigates risk while aligning financial decisions with voter mandates and federal grant agreements.

 

Improved Collaboration & Transparency

Real-time dashboards and dynamic visualizations help the department communicate complex financial relationships with clarity and confidence.

In allowing leadership and partnering agencies to review assumptions and results together, Synario not only leads to faster, more aligned decision-making but also promotes presentation-ready insights for city council members and auditors.

“Just telling that to management … it does help them make a decision on which projects would be more beneficial to push out.” – Bill Maynard, Seasoned Financial Professional for the City of Phoenix

 

The Results: Accelerated Decision-Making & Sustainable Strategic Planning

By adopting Synario’s dynamic financial modeling platform, the City of Phoenix Public Transit Department transformed the way it plans, analyzes, and communicates financial decisions.

The department now benefits from a streamlined, transparent, and scenario-driven approach that directly supports operational efficiency, strategic growth, and long-term sustainability. Key outcomes include:

• Increased Efficiency & Accuracy: By replacing static spreadsheets and manual version tracking, Phoenix accelerated financial updates and cut scenario testing from days to minutes, enabling the finance team to respond quickly to leadership requests and changing conditions.
• Faster, More Informed Decision-Making: Greater visibility into the long-term impact of financial decisions gives leadership confidence in actions like capital reallocations or project deferrals. Strategic planning through 2050, covering both operational and capital needs, further strengthens the department’s resilience and future readiness.
• Greater Transparency & Stakeholder Confidence: Presentation-ready visual reports allow Phoenix to clearly convey fiscal realities and future risks. By providing city leaders, auditors, and boards with actionable insights, the department demonstrates a proactive approach to uncertainty, building trust and enhancing credibility.
• Support for Strategic & Sustainable Growth: Synario enables Phoenix to link near-term funding decisions with long-term service growth initiatives, such as BRT, microtransit, and the shift to a zero-emission fleet, helping the department align capital investments with sustainability goals and community expectations.

Through these improvements, Phoenix has moved from reactive, spreadsheet-driven planning to a forward-looking, scenario-based approach that empowers smarter decisions, builds stakeholder confidence, and positions the transit system for sustainable growth.

“It’s just been really interesting to see a model that we can make work for us.” – Juanita Carver, Deputy IT Director at the City of Phoenix Public Transit Department

 

Drive Smarter Decisions in Your Transit Agency

Thanks to Synario, the City of Phoenix Public Transit Department transformed its approach to long-term financial planning. By replacing static spreadsheets with an agile, scenario-based platform, the department gained clearer insight and greater control over its complex funding landscape.

Transit leaders can now make data-driven decisions that align with voter expectations, legislative requirements, and the city’s mission to provide sustainable and equitable public transit.

Phoenix’s experience offers key lessons for transit agencies: replacing spreadsheets with Synario’s flexible, connected model boosts efficiency, delivers real-time long-term insights, and enhances transparency, building trust internally and externally. Scenario-based modeling also helps agencies adapt to economic shifts, changing ridership, and emerging transportation technologies.

These advancements position Phoenix to confidently navigate future challenges while continuing to deliver reliable, innovative, and community-centered transit services.

Equip your team with the financial clarity needed to drive smarter decisions, optimize infrastructure planning, and ensure long-term stability. Schedule your free demo today.