Navigating Change: Bringing Clarity to Higher Ed Planning

Emerson College's Move from Spreadsheets to Scenario Modeling

At a recent Synario Lunch and Learn, Rich Madonna, Vice President of Finance and CFO at Emerson College, sat down with the Synario team to talk through how he traded a manual, spreadsheet-heavy enrollment model for a fully visualized scenario platform, and why that switch changed the way he talks to Emerson's president, senior team, and board of trustees.

Rich joined Emerson a little over a year ago, right as the college was rolling out a new strategic enrollment management plan. One of his first jobs was building a model that could show what happens to enrollment and net tuition revenue under different assumptions. He started the way a lot of finance leaders do: a massive Excel file, broken out by cohort, tracking discount rate, persistence, and retention semester by semester. It worked, but it had a ceiling. Changing an input meant rebuilding a chart, and the logic behind the numbers wasn't obvious to anyone who hadn't built the file themselves. Having used Synario at a previous institution, Rich reconnected with the team to rebuild the model as something leadership could actually interact with.

Five Scenarios, One Bottom Line

Using sample data built to mirror Emerson's real structure, not the college's actual figures, Rich walked through a model where five enrollment and discount-rate scenarios sit side by side against a base case. Slide from flat enrollment with a rising discount rate, to enrollment growth with a steady discount rate, to an expense-driven scenario where costs climb four to five percent a year, and the net tuition revenue chart updates instantly. In one scenario, fifty additional students a year puts Emerson $20 million ahead of its base case by fiscal 2033. In another, rising expenses expose exactly how much revenue growth is needed just to stay balanced.

Rich designed the dashboard in layers on purpose: high-level charts for the board and senior leadership, with the full data tables underneath for anyone who wants to see the mechanics. That range was the whole point.

The model has also grown more precise over time. What started as a five-line undergraduate forecast is now 17 distinct enrollment lines, covering first-years, transfers, and spring and summer matriculants, each with its own discount rate and lifespan.

What’s Next for Emerson

Beyond validating Emerson's existing numbers, Rich said the process itself was a bit of an education; watching how small shifts in enrollment or discount rate compound over several years made the stakes easier to explain to colleagues. Next, he's looking to extend the same approach to the balance sheet: cash, endowment, the effects of a comprehensive campaign, and Moody's and other external ratings as scenarios play out.

He also sees Emerson's build as something other institutions could borrow from directly. His advice to CFOs weighing the same questions: